Methods Of Mathematical Statistics Research Articles

The analysis of medical prescriptions for patients with duodenal ulcer in hospital setting

Aim. To analyze medical prescriptions for patients with duodenal ulcer disease in hospital setting, to determine the compliance of the treatment with the current treatment protocols. Materials and methods. We used 102 case histories, medical prescriptions of the Gastroenterology Department of the Clinical Regional Hospital named after M.I. Pirogov, Unified Clinical Protocol of the primary and specialized medical care “Peptic ulcer of the stomach and duodenum in adults and children”, the State Formulary of Medicines of Ukraine, the nomenclature of drugs for the treatment of duodenal ulcer, the official online resource tabletki.ua. Statistical, analytical and comparative, systematic, logical, graphic and mathematical-statistical methods were applied. Results and discussion. As a result of the study conducted, an analysis of drug prescriptions for patients with duodenal ulcer was carried out at the premises of the Gastroenterology Department of the Clinical Regional Hospital named after M. I. Pirogov. Over a period of 1 year and 3 months, 102 patients with the main diagnosis of duodenal ulcer were treated. According to the data obtained from the histories of diseases, men (94 %) aged 30-40 years were most often ill. The average duration of bed days was 5 days. The most common concomitant diseases were pancreatitis, GERD (non-erosive, endoscopically positive), hepatitis, duodenal bile reflux, Oddi sphincter dysfunction (pancreatic type). Two groups of drugs were prescribed according to the ATC classification for pathogenetic and symptomatic treatment: group A – drugs affecting the digestive system and metabolism (71.43 %) and group J – antimicrobial drugs for systemic use (28.57 %). Among the producing countries, foreign-made drugs prevailed – 62.4 %. During the study period, doctors prescribed 63 active substances by INN and 109 drugs by TN. In accordance with the Unified Clinical Protocol, the number of INN drugs was 18, 39 drugs by TN, and the State Formulary included drugs of 48 INN and 80 TN. During the study period, 24 drugs by TN for the pathogenetic treatment (eradication therapy) and 18 drugs by TN for the symptomatic treatment were prescribed. The prescription of drugs for the pathogenetic and symptomatic treatment was scientifically substantiated and included in the current normative documentation for the provision of patients with duodenal ulcer. When conducting the eradication therapy the leading drugs were Omeprazole (66 prescriptions), De-nol (55 prescriptions), Ezonexa (29 prescriptions), Controlok (26 prescriptions), Pilobact Neo (24 prescriptions). To prevent dysbiosis, such drugs as Enterol (8 prescriptions), Enterogermina forte (7 prescriptions) were most often prescribed. To relieve the symptoms of duodenal ulcer, Mebsyn Retard (24 prescriptions), Trimspa (19 prescriptions), Neospastil (17 prescriptions) were applied. Conclusions. Therefore, the medical care of patients in hospital setting is expedient and corresponds to the current Treatment Protocols.

Raising the young teachers’ level of psychological readiness for professional and pedagogical activity in the conditions of supplementary professional education

Introduction. The teacher’s profession is one of the most important in any state. The modern teacher, recognising that the human being is the main subject and beneficiary of development, must possess a broad range of professional competencies and be fully prepared to engage in pedagogical activities in the constantly changing conditions that require non-standard approaches and due psychological training. The purpose of the article is to describe the content and the pedagogical conditions of the young teacher’s psychological training in supplementary professional education. Methods. A total of 213 young teachers (aged 20-30) from Sevastopol and its surrounding administrative region, having work experience from 1 to 3 years, took part in the preliminary testing; 50 young professionals took part in the formative and final stages of the experimental work (25 in the experimental group and 25 in the control group). Research methods: testing, survey, questioning, mathematical statistics methods: Pearson's chi-squared test. Data calculation was made using SPSS software, version 13.0. Results. The incoming testing showed that most young teachers are characterised by insufficient knowledge of the main issues of age-specific and pedagogical psychology, and the inability to apply psychological skills in practical pedagogical activity; novice specialists show unstable interests, an average level of communicative activity, down-toearth aspirations, anxiety, particularity of thinking. A specialised course “Psychological training of a young teacher as a condition for the realisation of new educational standards in training and education of children” was developed on the basis of the obtained data. The practical implementation of this form of learning provided for a sequence of training activities aimed at a change from the minimal reproductive level to an utmostly creative, highly productive level of mastering psychological knowledge, skills and abilities. Positive dynamics were noted in the components of young teachers’ psychological readiness for professional activity: cognitive (p<0.01), operational (p<0.01), motivational (p<0.01), communicative (p<0.01), emotional and volitional (p<0.01). Young teachers extended their knowledge of psychology, mastered new skills and abilities in practical professional activity, as concerns interaction with learners, especially with “troubled” children; developed communicative properties and features of interpersonal interaction with colleagues and students, showed increased positive motivation and alleviated emotional strain. Conclusion. The obtained results confirm the expediency of introducing psychological training for young teachers into the system of supplementary professional education, which involves the use of active forms and methods of training.

Analysis of the causes and safety countermeasures of coal mine accidents: A case study of coal mine accidents in China from 2018 to 2022

Statistical data on coal mine safety accidents in China from 2018 to 2022 were obtained. Mathematical statistical methods were used to analyze the accident level, accident type, death toll, time, space, and other factors. Grounded theory (GT), case-based reasoning (CBR), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), interpretative structural model (ISM) and other methods were used to analyze the causes of coal mine accidents in detail, and the characteristics, accident-causing attributes and importance of coal mine accidents in China were explored. The results indicate that (1) according to the level and type of accident, the incidence of general accidents in coal mines is the highest, with both the number of roof accidents and the death toll accounting for the highest values. From the time and location of the accidents, coal mine accident-prone areas are concentrated in northern and southern China. May and July are accident-prone periods every year. (2) Using GT-CBR to analyze the causes of coal mine accidents, 18 key statements were extracted, and 11 initialization concepts were summarized. Ultimately, the causes were categorized into 4 core categories: human factors (H), machine factors (M), environmental factors (E), and organizational management factors (O). (3) A hierarchical structure model of the causes of accidents according to ISM was built. The weight and proportion of accidents and deaths were combined to evaluate the importance of accident-causing attributes. Human factor-induced accidents accounted for 71.6% of all accidents, and the number of accident death caused by organization management factors was the largest, accounting for 54.8%. Comprehensive analysis revealed that human and organization management factors are the most important causes of coal mine accidents

Assessment of generic competences for foreign-language professional communication through applying the ADDIE model

Introduction. The paper aims to assess generic competencies for foreign-language professional communication formed through applying the ADDIE model. The goal of the study was to identify the way generic competencies are developed throughout the ESL course for veterinary students based on the authors’ implementation of the ADDIE model. Materials and Methods. The research was based on theoretical review of literature, comparative analysis of sources, terminological analysis, and investigation of teaching practices. The ADDIE method of instructional modeling was used as a fundamental research approach taken to designing a teaching aid and developing a training course, respectively. While testing, a sample of 59 first-year veterinary students and 5 lecturers of the Foreign Language Department at Omsk State Agrarian University were involved. In order to collect and study the research data, the authors applied the following evaluation methods: observation, survey and testing of students. The academic outcomes were evaluated by examining dynamics of foreign language communicative competence by expert teachers. The Wilcoxon T-test and Fisher test were used as mathematical statistics methods. Results. The authors applied the ADDIE instructional model to design a professional communication course in English for veterinary students based on competency-based approach. The materials were delivered during the 2022-23 academic year. The learning outcomes demonstrated by participants in the control and experimental groups proved the effectiveness of the author's teaching procedure in the formation of generic competencies for foreign language professional communication, the validity of which was confirmed using mathematical statistics methods. Conclusions. The proposed technology for designing a foreign language course based on the ADDIE model has demonstrated its effectiveness in the development of generic competencies for foreign-language professional communication, which was confirmed by more pronounced positive dynamics in the experimental group.

Analysis of Factors of Sports Migration and the Effectiveness of Competitive Activity of Football Players

The purpose of the work: determine the ways of correcting the training process based on taking in to account the influence of sports migration factors on the training of highly qualified football players.  Material and methods. To assess the impact of factors of sports migration on the effectiveness of competitive activity, the indicators of the competitive activity of football players of the national team of Ukraine in 16 official games during the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons. Methods of research. Analysis, generalization and systematization of data from scientific and methodological literary sources and the “Internet”, pedagogical observations, content analysis of competition regulations (based on the materials of the official FIFA; UEFA; UAF sites), analysis of performance indicators of competitive activity; method of expert evaluations; methods of mathematical statistics. Results. The 2020-2021 season: in 62,5% of official games, higher indicators were recorded for football players of the first group (“migrants” and “naturalized” athletes), the range of indicators – from 58.33% to 77.50%. At the same time, statistically significant differences (25.00%) were recorded in 2 games. In one game, higher indicators were recorded for football players of the first group (“migrants” and “naturalized” athletes) and, in one game, higher indicators were recorded for football players of the second group (athletes who were born in Ukraine are national athletes of the UAF and participate in UPL competitions). The 2021-2022 season: in 62.5% of official games, higher indicators were recorded for football players of the first group (“migrants” and “naturalized” athletes), the range of indicators – from 50.01% to 74.16%. No statistically significant differences were recorded. The comparative effectiveness of football players of the first and second groups was 46.15% and 53.85%, respectively. Conclusion. This state of affairs indicates the need to correct the modern system of multi-year improvement of highly qualified football players based on the development and formation of technologies for the direct training of migrant athletes for official international competitions.

Basic components of a personal resource determining a personified subject of activity: The impact on university students’ academic achievement

Introduction. The article reveals the problem of predicting university students’ academic success. The goal of the research is to determine the basic components of a personal resource that characterize a personified subject of activity, and empirically measure their impact on the academic success of a university student. Materials and Methods. Scientific analysis follows the resource and activity approaches based on S. L. Rubinstein and A. N. Leontiev’s methodological principle of the unity of consciousness and activity. The research methods include theoretical and methodological analysis of scholarly literature, assessment techniques, regression analysis, and methods of mathematical statistics, generalization and classification. Results. The main research results include the identification of basic meaningful components of a personal resource in correlation with the components of personification, which, according to the authors, can be considered as predictors of a successful, personified individual. Their influence on the academic achievement of university students has been empirically identified. It has been established that the components of personal resources have different degrees of influence on university students’ academic achievement. Conclusions. Researchers include a wide range of factors in the structure of a personal resource. The authors identified the basic components representing a personal resource, taking into account the structure of a personalized personality. It has been established that these components of personal resource can be considered as psychological predictors that determine the success of a university student in professional and educational activities. A comprehensive diagnostic study showed varying degrees of influence of the identified components on academic performance of university students.

Inclusive Physical Education of Students with Disabilities Due to War Injuries: Restoration of the Functions of the Lower Extremities

Background. The relevance of the study is because the institutions of higher education are now tasked with creating all the conditions for the recovery of body functions lost as a result of injuries of students with disabilities, which additionally actualizes the stated problem in connection with the long-term hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Objectives. The purpose of the article is to reveal the effectiveness of the developed program of inclusive PE on the recovery of lost functions due to injuries of the lower limbs in students with disabilities. Materials and methods. To solve the tasks, a complex of scientific intelligence methods was used at the empirical and theoretical level: literature analysis, observation, testing, experiment, and methods of mathematical statistics. The test program consisted of the star excursion balance, weight–bearing lunge test, and the single leg stance test. 24 male students with disabilities in the first year of study at a higher education institution took part in the experiment. Results. According to the qualitative assessment of the obtained results, it can be stated that after the end of the experiment, there is a general tendency to increase the results of the test tasks. A significant improvement of the indicators was found in all the investigated parameters without exception: as a positive trend in the range of 15% is observed. The results of the static and dynamic tests performed with support on the injured leg were significantly lower than with support on the uninjured leg (p <0.05). Conclusions. The results of the final testing allow us to ascertain the effectiveness of the implemented program. Statistically reliable positive dynamics of the set of investigated indicators proved that the implementation of the developed inclusive PE program for students with disabilities due to injuries of the lower extremities ensures the effectiveness of recovery due to functional injuries.

A study of blood glucose determination by means of an interlaboratory test

Through inter-laboratory comparison, based on the measurement process and measuring equipment conducted according to predetermined criteria, it is possible to evaluate the performance of the participants, which is known as qualification testing and is regulated in accordance with ISO 17043:2017/2018.In the medical field, the term “external quality assessment” is used for qualification testing schemes or wider programs where samples (standard, certified, attested), products, artefacts, pieces of equipment, measurement standards, data sets or other information are used for qualification testing. The processing of measurement data, which in many cases includes a random error detector along with a systematic error detector, is carried out using mathematical statistics methods, including statistical methods that are less sensitive to small deviations from the basic assumptions surrounding the probabilistic model, which are known as robust methods. Robust methods are a powerful tool for demonstrating competence in performing tests and measurements related to qualification testing schemes.

A hybrid ICEEMDAN and OMEDA-based vibrodiagnosis method for the bearing of rolling stock

A hybrid ICEEMDAN and OMEDA-based vibrodiagnosis method for the bearing of rolling stock

The correlation between the latency of child abuse and the functioning of the system

Aim: The study shows how the level of latency of domestic violence and child abuse is related to the functioning of the child protection and criminal justice systems. Methodology: The three research methods used for the study include both qualitative and quantitative elements. The research was conducted over five years. The total number of criminal case files processed for the offence of child endangerment exceeds 1300. The documentary analysis involved the inclusion of nearly 40 variables, and the results were obtained using both mathematical statistical methods (SPSS) and content analysis. Findings: Effective child protection and a well-functioning justice system lead to less latency. However, challenging and inefficient machinery increases the level of latency. Findings based on empirical research point to exactly how and by what means the functioning of the system, its shortcomings and failings, lack of child-centeredness focus, contributes to high levels of latency and undermines public trust. Value: The study aims to contribute to more effective child protection by identifying dysfunctional systemic elements.

Analysis of the State of Highways of Regional Importance in the Russian Federation

The purpose of the article is to analyze the regional road network of the Russian Federation, to identify the main factors affecting its condition depending on the federal district. Recently, investments have improved the situation in the field of repair and construction of regional roads, but the condition of regional roads remains unsatisfactory — about half of all regional roads do not meet regulatory requirements. Based on the analysis of the regional road network, it is necessary to make a decision on the investment of a particular road facility. The article examines the relationship between factors such as the percentage of regional highways that do not meet regulatory requirements and the individual rating of the standard of living. The question is also raised about identifying the most problematic places in the regional road network based on mathematical statistics methods, building dependencies of the share of bad regional roads on the length of federal roads, on the road climate zone, on the gross regional product per capita, on population, on the density of the road network and other factors. The main research methods are correlation and regression analysis. As a result of the study, a statistical analysis of the quality of the highway network of regional significance in the federal districts of the Russian Federation for 2007–2022 was carried out, the main patterns and dependencies of the percentage of roads that do not meet regulatory requirements on the density of the road network, gross regional product, and road climate zone were revealed. Conclusions are obtained that at the moment the state of regional highways and the gross regional product are poorly correlated values. On the contrary, the condition of regional roads strongly correlates with the index of quality of life in the region and the length of federal roads. In the first case, there is a strong positive correlation, in the second — a strong negative one.

Emotional Intelligence of Russia’s Potential Scientific and Technical Elite

A highly intellectual environment involves intense mental activity, rapid acquisition of new material, creativity, competition, and rivalry. All these aspects may cause a long-time neuropsychic stress. Students of leading technical universities need to be able to overcome such difficult situations. The authors reviewed theoretical approaches to emotional intelligence. They designed a psychological model of scientific and technical elite of modern Russia. The model included emotional-volitional, demand-motivational, value-meaning, socio-psychological, and cognitive-activity components. This paper focuses on the empirical study and confirmation of the emotionalvolitional component in potential engineering, scientific, and technical elite, i.e., junior students of Russia’s leading technical universities. The research revealed some psycho-logical peculiarities in their emotional intelligence and coping-strategies. The sample consisted of first-year engineering and technical students of the National Research Nuclear University MEPHI (n = 111). The psychodiagnostic tools included the coping test developed by R. Lazarus and S. Folkman and adapted by T. L. Kryukova, E. V. Kuftyak, and M. S. Zamyshlyaeva; D. V. Lyusin’s test of emotional intelligence. The data analysis relied on IBM SPSS Statistics V.22.0 and the Kruskal-Wallis H-test method of mathematical statistics. The students proved able to consciously analyze difficult situations, work out solutions, plan and predict the outcomes of their behavior, as well as to resort to past experience and available resources. In general, these overcoming models had a constructive effect on the development of an engineer’s personality. However, the underdevelopment of the emotional sphere and poor expression of feelings affected interpersonal and intragroup relationships. Students of nuclear engineering should develop their emotional sphere and expand the range of coping strategies in stressful situations.

A dimensional design of tractor seat based on Iranian anthropometric characteristics.

The dimensional seat design process should consider both the users' tasks and their physical characteristics. To use an approach for the design and evaluation of seat dimensions based on the anthropometric characteristics of the Iranian population and the requirements of tractor operators. Some existing equations relating the seat dimensions to anthropometric characteristics were modified according to logical justifications and international standards. A new mathematical-statistical method was used to extract the equations estimating the constant seat dimensions based on the theoretical maximizing of the accommodation level. In addition, an Overall Seat Accommodation Score (OSAS) was developed to represent the mean of seat dimensions accommodation level and dimensional accommodation equality, simultaneously. The dimensional seat design can be affected under different conditions of adjustability, esthetic, and space limitations. However, it was shown that it is possible to improve the design of tractor seats without any significant increase in the final cost and complexity. A new approach was used for tractor seats for a sample of Iranian operators and can be used for the design and evaluation of tractor seats for other target populations.

Features of using developmental recreation games in adaptive physical recreation of children 5-6 years old with delayed psycho-emotional development

The article is devoted to the construction of a program of adaptive physical recreation classes using the means of developing recreational games for children 5-6 years old with a delay in psycho-emotional development. The purpose of the study is to theoretically substantiate and develop a program of classes with elements of badminton for women in the first period of adulthood, the purpose of which is to increase women's interest in physical activity, increase the level of physical activity and improve health.
 Methods and organization of research - analysis and generalization of special scientific and methodological literature, documentary materials, sociological (questionnaire, expert survey), methods of research of motor activity, methods of mathematical statistics.
 The proposed program is designed for three months. The duration of the class was 30 minutes twice a week. The classes included a warm-up, the main part, developing recreational games and a hitch were used as tools. The variety of means of the program, namely various developmental recreational games, will contribute to the harmonious personal development of the child at this age stage.

Аcupuncture as a means of rehabilitation for people with bronchial asthma

The article considers the possibility of using acupuncture as a means of acupuncture in the rehabilitation of adolescents with bronchial asthma. It is noted that bronchial asthma remains one of the dangerous diseases that cause significant mortality among children and adults. The purpose of the study was to study the effect of acupuncture on the state of the function of external breathing during respiratory rehabilitation among people with bronchial asthma in remission. Research methods: analysis of scientific and methodical literature; analysis of outpatient charts of patients, surveys, traditional and calculation methods of determining the main indicators of the external respiratory system, methods of mathematical statistics. It has been shown that adolescents with bronchial asthma have a decrease in external respiratory function indicators. In adolescents with bronchial asthma, there is a decrease in the indicators of the function of external breathing. The deviation of the actual indicators from the appropriate ones was: LVEF – 27%, FLVEF – 38%, FEV1 – 44%, Ntype – 33%, respectively; Tiffno index – 79%, Tweed – 23 p. The expansion of the motor regime and the use of acupuncture reflexology during the remission period contributed to the increase in the indicators of the function of external breathing in the main group compared to the control group: LVEF by 10.47% and 2.36%, LVEF – 13.32% and 1.96%, FEV1 – 19 ,24% and 7.14%, Ntype – 13.72% and 5.34%, IT – 3.7% and 0.17%, Tweed – 11.58% and 5.89%, respectively.
 The use of needle reflexology as a means of acupuncture in respiratory rehabilitation and timely correction of the motor regime will improve bronchial patency, improve the functioning of the respiratory system of the body, increase the work capacity of the younger generation, will contribute to reducing the severity of the disease, limiting the use of drug therapy, and longer remission.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE BBC LEARNING ENGLISH APPLICATION FOR BUILDING STUDENTS’ ENGLISH-LANGUAGE STRATEGIC COMPETENCE

Aim. The aim of this article is to analyse the effectiveness of using the BBC Learning English application for building students’ English-language strategic competence. Methods. The research involved the following methods: survey, pedagogical experiment, expert evaluations. Standard methods of mathematical statistics were used to analyse the obtained results. Results. Research participants who used the application showed significantly better results in improving their speaking skills, expanding their vocabulary, and improving their skills in formulating and expressing their thoughts in English compared to those who did not use the application. The study also showed that using the application promotes active interactive learning and independent learning of the English language, which has a positive effect on student motivation and provides a sustainable positive effect in learning. Conclusions. Using the application improves the level of speaking competence, expands the vocabulary, and develops the ability to formulate and express one’s thoughts in English. Students who used the application regularly achieved better results in learning English compared to those who did not use the application. Prospects. Further research may focus on studying other digital means of foreign language learning.

Promising Directions for the Development of the Transport and Logistics Infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route

Relevance. The modern global agenda dictates new rules and principles of building international relations, including international trade. Under these conditions, the reorientation of foreign trade flows becomes an obvious step. This reorientation plays a significant role for Russia in terms of stabilizing the economy, increasing competitiveness and defending national economic interests. The purpose is consideration of the direction of reorientation of Russian foreign trade flows in the context of anti-Russian sanctions.Objectives: describe the composition and tasks of the functioning of the transport and logistics infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route; identify the problems and prospects for the development of the transport and logistics infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route.Methodology. The research methodology included the use of methods for analyzing quantitative and qualitative characteristics, theoretical analysis and generalization of scientific literature, methods of mathematical statistics, analysis of the expert method in open sources, generalization of the analyzed information.Results. The geographical position of Russia and its dominant position in the Arctic makes it promising to use the Northern Sea Route to develop its own transport potential, provided that all the problems that currently prevent an increase in the cargo turnover of this route are solved. Despite the advantages in the length of the route and speed, the meteorological features and complexity of the northern waters, as well as the technological backwardness of the port infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, make it necessary to make serious investments in the development of both the transport and logistics infrastructure itself and in the creation of a fleet that will carry goods and ice wiring.Conclusions. The creation of an appropriate technological infrastructure for the development of cargo transportation involves the creation of new hub ports. In addition to improving technological infrastructure systems for improving loading and unloading capacities, the expansion of the container fleet is also relevant. To connect the ports of the Northern Sea Route with the railway infrastructure, the implementation of the projects "Northern Latitudinal Passage 1" and "Northern Latitudinal Passage 2" should be continued.

Research on Data Mining and Reinforcement Learning in Recommendation Systems

This paper aims to help students better grasp the required professional knowledge and core concepts. This paper presents a design method for a multi-layer knowledge base based on XML. According to learners' identity characteristics and learning behaviour, using the mathematical statistics method, the feature expression for the learning system is constructed. Multivariable linear regression theory establishes convergence constraints for accurate and deep mining. The average detection results of the collected samples are used for high-quality deep mining of user portraits in the learning system. This project intends to study the method of solving accurate confidence intervals for user portrait data in the education system. Excel and Access are used to complete the data collection of the teaching object and the construction of the database. A multi-mode interactive editing and processing method of user portrait information for education systems is studied in cloud computing. Finally, a learning system based on mathematical loading mode is proposed, and an object-oriented learning recommendation system is designed. The developed teaching software can enable students to get more teaching guidance when they acquire the required knowledge to improve students' learning effect effectively.

A transformer-based method for correcting significant wave height numerical forecasting errors

Accurate significant wave height (SWH) forecasting is essential for various marine activities. While traditional numerical and mathematical-statistical methods have made progress, there is still room for improvement. This study introduces a novel transformer-based approach called the 2D-Geoformer to enhance SWH forecasting accuracy. The 2D-Geoformer combines the spatial distribution capturing capabilities of SWH numerical models with the ability of mathematical-statistical methods to identify intrinsic relationships among datasets. Using a comprehensive long time series of SWH numerical hindcast datasets as the numerical forecasting database and ERA5 reanalysis SWH datasets as the observational proxies database, with a focus on a 72-hour forecasting window, the 2D-Geoformer is designed. By training the potential connections between SWH numerical forecasting fields and forecasting errors, we can retrieve SWH forecasting errors for each numerical forecasting case. The corrected forecasting results can be obtained by subtracting the retrieved SWH forecasting errors from the original numerical forecasting fields. During long-term validation periods, this method consistently and effectively corrects numerical forecasting errors for almost every case, resulting in a significant reduction in root mean square error compared to the original numerical forecasting fields. Further analysis reveals that this method is particularly effective for numerical forecasting fields with higher errors compared to those with relatively smaller errors. This integrated approach represents a substantial advancement in SWH forecasting, with the potential to improve the accuracy of operational SWH forecasts. The 2D-Geoformer combines the strengths of numerical models and mathematical-statistical methods, enabling better capture of spatial distributions and intrinsic relationships in the data. The method's effectiveness in correcting numerical forecasting errors, particularly for cases with higher errors, highlights its potential for enhancing SWH forecasting accuracy in operational settings.

Bayesian Network Model and Causal Analysis of Ship Collisions in Zhejiang Coastal Waters

<div>For taking counter measures in advance to prevent accidental risks, it is of significance to explore the causes and evolutionary mechanism of ship collisions. This article collects 70 ship collision accidents in Zhejiang coastal waters, where 60 cases are used for modeling while 10 cases are used for verification (testing). By analyzing influencing factors (IFs) and causal chains of accidents, a Bayesian network (BN) model with 19 causal nodes and 1 consequential node is constructed. Parameters of the BN model, namely the conditional probability tables (CPTs), are determined by mathematical statistics methods and Bayesian formulas. Regarding each testing case, the BN model’s prediction on probability of occurrence is above 80% (approaching 100% indicates the certainty of occurrence), which verifies the availability of the model. Causal analysis based on the backward reasoning process shows that H (Human error) is the main IF resulting in ship collisions. The causal chain that maximizes the likelihood of an accident occurring is: H1 (improper lookout) → H4 (underestimation of collision) → H7 (failure of taking effective collision-avoidance measures) → H (human error) → C (ship collision). By implementing sensitivity analysis process, key IFs of ship collisions are found and are ranked as: H9 (improper emergency handling), H7 (failure of taking effective collision-avoidance measures), H6 (without using safe speed), H4 (underestimation of collision), H1 (improper lookout), H3 (nonstandard duty), H8 (failure of fulfilling “giving way” responsibility), H5 (unaware of target ships), and H2 (crew incompetence). Among them, H9 (improper emergency handling) and H7 (failure to take effective collision-avoidance measures) have relatively high sensitivity and greater impact on collision accidents. Results show that the BN model can be used to analyze the causes of ship collisions in Zhejiang coastal waters and to predict the probability of occurrence of accidents. The research will provide theoretical and practical support for exploring the causes and revealing the evolutionary mechanism of accidents, and for taking targeted risk control measures to prevent future accidents.</div>